Selected Research
Regulation and Income Mobility
Income Mobility Automation and Occupational Licensing
With Alicia Plemmons and Vincent Geloso
Abstract:
Technological change has long been tied with distributional concerns due to displacement against certain skills on labor markets. Short-run dislocations could create scarring in the long run. For example, shifts against less skilled workers with children could limit their ability to improve the inter-generational income mobility of their children. The existing literature rarely emphasizes the possibility that the ill-effects of technological change are conditional on government regulations that limit the ability of workers to rapidly adjust—thus creating the scarring. We document the importance of these regulations by focusing on changes in licensing of low- and mid-income occupations, exposure to industrial automation in the United States since the 1980s, and patterns of intergenerational income mobility. We find that a significant share of the prediction of falling income mobility attributed to automation is actually tied to changes in occupational licensing. Areas that experienced labor market deregulation and high exposure to automation suffered far less than areas that did not engage in deregulation.
Political Economy
Using Straight-Ticket Ballots to Measure Strict Partisans in the Electorate
With Timothy Groseclose
Abstract:
We estimate the share of “hard partisan” voters in the United States by leveraging the fact that some states allow voters to vote straight party (i.e., cast a single vote to select all candidates within a party). Naive estimates using data from Alabama, Michigan, and South Carolina suggest that two-thirds of both Republican and Democratic voters are “hard partisans”; however, we argue that these estimates are biased, as they include voters who select the straight-party option based on spatial preferences. We construct a structural econometric model that accounts for this to estimate the true share of “hard partisans” in both parties. Our estimates suggest that a larger share of voters are persuadable than the current academic and popular discourse suggests. We discuss implications for electoral outcomes and campaign finance given our estimates.
Digital Infrastructure and Economic Development
Broadband Access and Economic Outcomes: Evidence from a Tribal Rollout
With Thomas Stratmann
Abstract:
We estimate the economic effects of a broadband infrastructure expansion on the Colville Reservation, a geographically isolated tribal area in Washington State. Using a synthetic control design, we compare post-treatment trends in per capita income and labor force participation to those of a weighted combination of similar but untreated reservations. Broadband access was introduced in 2013 through a tribal-led initiative that proceeded independently of income trends and was shaped by topographical and regulatory constraints. We find that broadband availability is associated with a $4,000 increase in per capita income and a five percentage point rise in male labor force participation. These effects are confirmed by placebo tests and persist over a multi-year post-treatment period. Our results contribute to the literature on digital infrastructure by documenting large marginal returns to broadband in a setting characterized by limited pre-existing connectivity and high transaction costs.